American analyst Brian Foley is currently predicting a 10 per cent increase in business jet deliveries this year compared to last although the sustainability of said rise is in some doubt. The simultaneous entry into the market of several new models, such as the Citation Longitude, Bombardier 7500 and two new Gulfstreams, should see a spike in 2019 deliveries, perhaps seeing 705 box-fresh biz jets enter into service. Of course, this is still a considerable distance from the peak of 1,300 new jets in 2008 and the predicted rise this year may not endure.
“The duration of the upturn will be challenged as the novelty of the new aircraft wears off and economic reality sets in,” Foley warned. Although, “anything to the upside after nearly a decade of flat deliveries would be more than welcome.”
Depreciation is another factor to consider where a different paradigm today can cause jets lose up to 50 per cent of their value within five years. “This has taken the market some getting used to since just 10 years ago it wasn’t unheard of for a plane to appreciate in value after five years due to simple supply and demand economics,” Foley explained. Reason being, with a worldwide fleet of more than 22,000 biz jets, there are plenty of secondhand and nearly-new bargains out there.